The
show is only a day away! – though when I post this, it will date Sunday, which
means it will be on Monday, Australia time – I have divided my predictions into
two categories: Most likely to win and Personal choice.
My predictions are based on three points:
Those who have won favourably in previous award shows, the Academy’s tendency
to be sentimental – a good example of this is when Scorsese won Best Director for
The Departed, when arguably, he
really deserved to win it for Good Fellas
(there are so many examples of this, which I won’t go into right now), and I
felt Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu deserved to win that year for Babel – and, lastly, my own gut-feeling.
I’ve only seen six of the nine films
nominated for Best Picture – I’m a big believer in Argo and Amour – but I
thought, I may as well log in my predictions. It’s all in good fun.
Best
Picture
Most
likely to win: Argo
Personal
choice: Argo
Best
Director
Most
likely to win: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
(with Ben Affleck out of this race, Spielberg feels like the most likely
contender for the Academy).
Personal
choice: Michael Haneke, Amour.
Best
Actor
Most
likely to win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln.
Personal
choice: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master.
Best
Actress
Most
likely to win: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour.
Personal
choice: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings
Playbook (but only just ahead of Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty).
Best
Supporting Actor
Most
likely to win: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln.
Personal
choice: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
(Waltz has been a favourite in previous award shows, but if Lincoln isn’t favourite for Best Picture,
there’s a chance the Academy are going to favour the film in other categories, much
like the Best Director category, and award a great old-timer, like Jones, for
his patriotic role).
Best
Supporting Actress
Most
likely to win: Anne Hathaway, Les
Miserables.
Personal
choice: Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings
Playbook (I’m pitching for the dark horse here).
Best
Original Screenplay
Most
likely to win: Quentin Tarantino, Django
Unchained.
Personal
choice: Michael Hanake, Amour.
Best
Adapted Screenplay
Most
likely to win: Chris Terrio, Argo.
Personal
choice: Chris Terrio, Argo.
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